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Mounting worries have emerged over the potential of warfare among Horn of Africa neighbours, the Ethiopian government and the Eritrean government, as hostile language has intensified in the past few weeks.

What Has Ethiopian Officials Stated?

Landlocked Ethiopia's demands for passage to the sea coast through Eritrean territory has triggered a intense rhetorical conflict.

Ethiopian Prime Minister previously announced in 2023 that his country's sea access was an vital issue, comments that Eritrea ignored.

Relations between the both governments have regularly been difficult. After a prolonged struggle for freedom, the Eritrean state, which has a 1,350km (840-mile) Red Sea coastline, officially seceded from Ethiopian rule in the early 1990s, rendering it without sea access.

In 1998, a border war broke out in which over a hundred thousand people were killed.

Current Statements from Ethiopia's Government

Abiy and military leader General Birhanu Jula have openly claimed control of Eritrea's coastal city of Assab – about 60km from the boundary - and implied the desire to capture it through military means.

In early September, Abiy said Ethiopia's "error" of being denied passage to the sea as a result of Eritrea secession would be "corrected in the future".

The Ethiopian envoy to Kenya, former General Bacha Debele, said that Assab was "Ethiopian property" and would be given back "by force".

Eritrea's Answer to the Statements

Despite ongoing threats from Ethiopian officials, Eritrea's reaction has been confined to short statements on X from Information Minister Yemane G..

The minister has dismissed Ethiopia's push for sea access labeling it "dangerous" and a "negative policy" of "territorial claims" – a approach of reclaiming lost territory.

The information ministry alerted on mid-September that attempts to legitimise "flagrant aggression" would have major implications for the Ethiopian government and its neighbouring countries and is a "limit that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Security Preparations on the Ground

There have been no reports of major military movements in the frontier regions between the neighboring states.

However, in Ethiopia, government media has broadcast graduation ceremonies of many recruits at multiple army bases.

The leader of human resources department of the military, the officer, recently said in an discussion that the defense forces was in a "strong stance" as "numerous of recruits" were joining it, which he said was "a message to our adversaries".

Past Background of the Tension

For decades from 1890, Eritrea was administered by Italian rulers.

Following Italy's defeat, it was then administered by the British military before becoming a integrated region of the Ethiopian empire.

But in 1962 the Ethiopian emperor cancelled this system and Eritrea became totally absorbed into the Ethiopian state.

A extended civil war followed, ending with military reversal in 1991. Autonomy was then endorsed by voters in a referendum in 1993.

Temporarily in the 1990s, there were friendly connections between the leadership in Addis Ababa and Eritrea's capital, but they fell out over the specific demarcation of their shared boundary, resulting in war in 1998.

Though this ended in a ceasefire agreement in 2000, it was never fully implemented, and the neighbors stayed at odds.

This changed in 2018, when Abiy made overtures to Eritrean President the president. The both leaders signed a announcement that the hostilities was finished – a action that won Abiy the prestigious award.

The both administrations were then cooperators in the country's previous civil war in Tigray.

However relations have subsequently deteriorated again.